Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 1.174334 1.332780 1.500426 1.690580 1.899825 2.122606 2.377275
2025-02-02 0.948021 1.164682 1.408329 1.700932 2.041008 2.421998 2.879217
2025-02-09 0.765405 1.016086 1.315022 1.693775 2.156545 2.699108 3.378490
2025-02-16 0.623595 0.894572 1.236943 1.693632 2.278425 2.993290 3.923358
2025-02-23 0.491405 0.764532 1.130790 1.645260 2.335092 3.212924 4.397091
2025-03-02 0.376211 0.637846 1.011130 1.563712 2.339283 3.365535 4.798631
2025-03-09 0.305434 0.562400 0.951108 1.554990 2.438159 3.647843 5.388699
2025-03-16 0.243522 0.488746 0.882626 1.524853 2.502770 3.887557 5.938209
2025-03-23 0.208502 0.452580 0.866219 1.569768 2.678760 4.293887 6.743294
2025-03-30 0.163201 0.388379 0.794318 1.518421 2.704298 4.485028 7.255669
2025-04-06 0.131785 0.342996 0.746889 1.500026 2.777360 4.749007 7.887487
2025-04-13 0.104702 0.299474 0.695332 1.467300 2.822765 4.972120 8.469752
2025-04-20 0.088749 0.277260 0.682397 1.504832 2.993719 5.410590 9.418914
2025-04-27 0.074501 0.255097 0.665931 1.534012 3.153381 5.842442 10.384257
2025-05-04 0.061070 0.230764 0.640605 1.543063 3.278541 6.226718 11.297127
2025-05-11 0.050206 0.209685 0.618433 1.555316 3.410179 6.629679 12.261451
2025-05-18 0.038772 0.182213 0.575857 1.519750 3.449612 6.878981 12.989136
2025-05-25 0.028331 0.152717 0.521436 1.450559 3.417472 7.001476 13.512382
2025-06-01 0.022592 0.137023 0.498791 1.448049 3.514409 7.355170 14.439700
2025-06-08 0.017352 0.120152 0.468805 1.424029 3.565201 7.628054 15.240995
2025-06-15 0.014874 0.114005 0.468293 1.470096 3.763626 8.180234 16.548843
2025-06-22 0.010912 0.097648 0.432618 1.424155 3.763767 8.364154 17.218711
2025-06-29 0.008363 0.086544 0.410435 1.408827 3.827451 8.669618 18.115480